DuckWiseHow the DuckWise track record is calculated
Every DuckWise idea is counted from the entry price published before the position was taken to the close price published when it ended. Nothing is back-filled, and losing ideas stay on the record. Updated 5 October 2026.
How a single idea is counted
Each idea is a position with a stated entry, stop level, price projection and risk grade, published before the position is taken. Its result is the price change from the published entry to the published close: for a long idea, a rise is a gain; for a short idea, a fall is a gain. Results are price-only — before commissions, taxes and slippage — and assume the position was taken at the published entry and closed at the published close.
A breakeven close (exactly 0.00%) counts as neither a win nor a loss and is left out of the hit rate; it still counts as a closed idea and in the average. The typical holding period is the median from entry to close; the mean is longer, pulled up by a few long-term ideas.
How the model portfolio is built
Calculated from every idea published since 4 January 2019: 596 closed and 14 still open, valued at today's price. Each takes its published share of the portfolio at its published entry price and closes at its published exit price; positions are marked at market in between. Uninvested capital earns nothing, and on most days less than half the portfolio was invested. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. 18 tickers no longer trade and have no daily quotes — their published entry and exit are used, without marks in between. Nasdaq-100 via QQQ and S&P 500 via SPY, total return with dividends; gold via GLD. Past results are not a reliable indicator of future results.
| Series | Total | Per year | Worst drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| DuckWise model portfolio | 632.1% | 29.3% | -18.8% |
| Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | 402.5% | 23.2% | -35.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 241.7% | 17.2% | -33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 213.0% | 15.9% | -26.4% |
Past results are not a reliable indicator of future results. The model portfolio is a calculation from published levels; no account traded it.
Results by year
| Year closed | Ideas | In profit | At a loss | Hit rate | Average | Typical days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to date) | 39 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | +13.65% | 11 |
| 2025 | 97 | 83 | 14 | 85.6% | +11.46% | 41 |
| 2024 | 95 | 73 | 22 | 76.8% | +8.79% | 36 |
| 2023 | 100 | 90 | 10 | 90.0% | +14.11% | 40 |
| 2022 | 68 | 41 | 27 | 60.3% | +4.88% | 47 |
| 2021 | 91 | 69 | 22 | 75.8% | +13.88% | 44 |
| 2020 | 75 | 62 | 12 | 83.8% | +13.89% | 35 |
| 2019 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 71.0% | +2.31% | 20 |
Every idea in these rows is listed by ticker in the archive.
What the terms mean
- Long
- The idea expects the price to rise from the stated entry toward the stated projection.
- Short
- The idea expects the price to fall from the stated entry toward the stated projection.
- Entry
- The price at which the model portfolio takes the position. Published before the position is taken, never after.
- Stop
- The price at which the idea is abandoned. It may be moved to the entry price once the position is ahead; any move is published.
- Projection
- The price the idea works toward. It is an expectation, not a forecast of a certain outcome, and not a level the market is obliged to reach.
- Risk: Moderate
- A large, liquid instrument; the thesis rests on known, published information.
- Risk: High
- A volatile instrument, or a thesis that depends on an event with an uncertain outcome.
- Risk: Extreme
- The position can lose most of its value quickly. Sized small in the model portfolio for that reason.
How an idea is formed
Each idea starts from the published financial statements and filings of the company, its price history and the situation it trades in. It states an entry, a stop, a projection, a risk grade and the reasoning behind the position, all before the position is taken. Nothing is generated by a model or a bot: levels are set by a person and published as they were decided.
How often this is updated
Ideas are published when the research finds one — there is no schedule and no quota, and in a quiet market a week can pass without a new idea. An open idea is updated whenever its levels change or it closes. This page recalculates from the record each time it loads; the model portfolio is rebuilt every trading evening.
Disclosures
Who produces this
Research published under the name DuckWise Research is produced and disseminated by INDARRA LIMITED, Akropoleos 82, 2012 Nicosia, Cyprus — the operator of this site and of the DuckWise app. INDARRA LIMITED is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer and is not authorised or supervised by any financial regulator. It is not registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a research analyst or investment adviser, and its research does not cover securities listed in India. Contact: indarra@tradeasduck.com.
Interests and conflicts
INDARRA LIMITED holds no position in the instruments it writes about. People involved in preparing an idea may hold positions in it, including positions opened before publication. No payment of any kind is accepted from an issuer, a broker or a third party for publishing an idea or for its content. The company earns only from subscriptions.
Time of publication
Every idea carries the moment its position was taken, shown on the idea itself in the app: the date and the time of day in US Eastern time, to the nearest quarter of an hour. Dates in the archive are the dates the position opened and closed.
What this is not
All research here is general and impersonal. It is not addressed to any particular person, takes no account of anyone's circumstances or objectives, and is not a personal recommendation, a trading signal, or an offer to buy or sell. Every decision is yours.